K.T. Short Term Trading Signals

for RYDEX, PROFUNDS and ETFs

 Beating the market with long and short index funds. -

 
OPEN model >> 
CLOSE model >>
COMBI model >>
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Unambiguous signals issued before the markets open

 

 

No need for follow-up during the day

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute returns with equity long/short strategies

(NB: These web pages were produced and actively updated during the early stages of model development. This web work has not been prioritised, however the timing model is alive and well and is now into its 11th year of operation, providing useful performance to its users.

For latest performance figures, please utilise the excellent real life records maintained by TimerTrac.

We also have our systems tracked by www.thetaresearch.com under the model names KT-Crude, KT-Growth-Combi, KT-Growth-Open and KT-International.)

 

 

 

 

Verified results for recent 12 months:

 

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ OPEN

    +78%

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ CLOSE

      +27%

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ COMBI

    +52%

 

Objective

The objective of all our short term trading models is to achieve unsurpassed all weather performance over the long term by utlising equity long/short positions with index ETFs or mutual funds.  The models are also applicable for Long Only investors who may enter MoneyMarket in periods where a model signals Short.

We apply two approaches, aggressive and steady, which are based upon the same foundations but are designed to provide solutions with different potential and volatility profiles.

 

For all the models positions will change on average two times per week and the ambition is to take advantage of short term market turns as well as periods with unbroken direction up or down.

Although the model is developed for and fed by Nasdaq data, it will also work well for ETFs and funds tracking other market indices.
 



Update June 2009: After a long period of Rydex models development, in particlar the flagship OPEN model now seems to have arrived at a useful level of predictability. It had a great start of 2008, but was then hampered by some "stubbornness" parameter settings during the highly volatile rest of the year. These issues have been worked on and dealt with and we believe that in its present condition, the OPEN model should avoid such excessive setbacks as has been experienced during some periods in the past. High volatility will remain, though, in particular with the 2x geared funds.


 

Aggressive approach (OPEN, CLOSE, COMBI)

The "OPEN" model is designed for index-based investing with trades executed at the market open or early in the session.  We use it actively for the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ and for Rydex 2x geared funds traded at Rydex' 10:45 AM pricing.

 

 

The "CLOSE" model issues signals for trades at closing prices.  It is in particular meant as an alternative for those who use investment objects which only are priced at market close (i.e. most mutual funds, including Profunds and Direxion). 

Read more about the aggressive systems here >>


 

Trading with ETFs

 



 

Trading with mutual funds

The strategies do actively take advantage of features offered by novel fund providers such as Rydex, who in their prospectus state: 

"The [Rydex] Dynamic Funds may be appropriate for investors who use a portfolio investment strategy that relies on frequent buying, selling, or exchanging among stock mutual funds, since the Funds do not limit how often an investor may exchange among Funds."

 

 


 

Which approach to choose and use?

The models represent separate paths, i.e. they show different footprints and behave differently over different time periods, and it is not possible to predict or prejudge which of the models or strategies will turn out the best return for a given period. 

The OPEN and CLOSE models are always invested, either in long or short positions.  A natural consequnce of this aggressive approach will be situations where drawdowns can appear as excessive (maximum 11% total equity peak to valley for OPEN or CLOSE with unleveraged QQQ,  5% for COMBI).

However with 4 years of history (i.e. one year back test using complete set of input data, and subsequent 3 years with documented live trades) the models have shown their inherent capacity to recover such temporary set-backs.

Steady performance with less drawdown?

Over time all models will hopefully show results up to their respective capabilities, however one way to lessen the extent of temporary fluctuations is to employ a combination of models; 

The COMBI strategy represents potential for continuous growth with more stability than individual use of OPEN or CLOSE (COMBI requires access to both OPEN and CLOSE signals),

 

A graphic presentation of how the various alternatives compare can be viewed here >>>

 
 

 

Disclaimer: The owner of this site takes no responsibility for risk and possible losses on investments based on views here presented. Each individual is always fully responsible for his / her own investment decisions and which equities or financial instruments to trade.

mail: kt@kt-timing.com