K.T. Short Term Trading Signals

for RYDEX, PROFUNDS and ETFs

 Beating the market with long and short index funds. -

 
CLOSE model >>
COMBI model >>
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Unambiguous signals issued before the markets open

 

 

No need for follow-up during the day

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute returns with equity long/short strategies

NB: These web pages were established and actively updated during the early stages of model development. Web updates have not been prioritised, however the timing model has undergone improvements, is alive and well, and is now into its 14th year of operation, providing useful performance to users.

NB: A full system overhaul was implemented late December 2016. Thus, the pattern and frequency of trades are now different from the signals posted prior to 1/1/2017, with radically less frequent signals and seemingly more consistent, less fluctuating returns.

For logged performance figures, please utilise the excellent tools provided by TimerTrac.


 

 

 

 

 

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ STEADY, 12 months

    +35%

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ CLOSE, 12 months

      +70%

 

Nasdaq-100 2x @ COMBI, 12 months

    +45%

 

Objective

The objective of our trading models is to achieve all weather performance over the long term by utlising equity long/short positions with index ETFs or mutual funds.  The models are also applicable for Long Only investors who may enter MoneyMarket in periods where a model signals Short.

We apply two approaches, aggressive and steady, which are based upon the same foundations but are designed to provide solutions with different potential and volatility profiles.

 

For all models, positions now change on average 14 times per year and the ambition is to take advantage of short term market turns as well as periods with unbroken direction up or down.

Although the models are developed for and fed with Nasdaq data, they should work also with ETFs and funds tracking other indices.
 


 

Two approaches: CLOSE and STEADY

The "CLOSE" model is designed for index-based investing with trades executed at closing prices. Positions alter between long and short. Typically, the (revised) model signals change once a month (on average 14 switch signals issued yearly for the 11 year test period).

 

 

The "STEADY" model also issues signals for end-of-day trades, however it alters between long and cash. By not entering short poositions, "STEADY" is the alternative for those who may not be comfortable with the market volatilty that often is associated with negative trends.


Trading with ETFs

Unleveraged performance for KT Short Term models applied to index ETFs.

ETF

Model info

5 years

3 years

1 year

QQQ

CLOSE

+130 %

+80 %

+33 %

QQQ

STEADY

+105 %

+60 %

+32 %

QQQ

COMBI

+120 %

+70 %

+18 %

SPY

CLOSE

+90 %

+58 %

+25 %

SPY

STEADY

+80 %

+48 %

+15 %

SPY

COMBI

+84 %

+50 %

+19 %

 

The table was last updated on 05.09.2018 (The TimerTrac graphs are always up to date - click icons to view).


 

Trading with mutual funds

The strategies take advantage of features offered by novel fund providers such as Rydex, who in their prospectus state: 

"The [Rydex] Dynamic Funds may be appropriate for investors who use a portfolio investment strategy that relies on frequent buying, selling, or exchanging among stock mutual funds, since the Funds do not limit how often an investor may exchange among Funds."

This flexibility provided by Rydex was definitely a requirment for the model's approach until 2017 with position changes signalled on average two times per week. Following the model revision late 2016, signals now occur less frequent and are appropriate for trades on any platform.

KT Short Term models applied to leveraged index funds.

Fund

Index

5 years

3 years

Model info

RYDEX Nasdaq100 2x / Inv. Nasdaq100 2x

NDX x2

+300 %

+150 %

CLOSE

RYDEX Nasdaq100 2x

NDX x2

+280 %

+125 %

STEADY

RYDEX S&P500 2x / Inv. S&P500 2x

S&P500 x2

+170 %

+110 %

CLOSE

RYDEX S&P500 2x

S&P500 x2

+160 %

+90 %

STEADY

The table was last updated on 05.09.2018 (The TimerTrac graphs are always up to date - click icons to view).

 

Check LONG ONLY performance by setting ETF Neg to "Money Market" when viewing the TimerTrac graphs.

www.kt-timing.com

 

 

 


 

Which approach to choose and use?

The models represent separate paths, i.e. they show different footprints and behave differently over different time periods, and it is not possible to predict or prejudge which of the models or strategies will turn out the best return for a given period. 

The CLOSE model is always invested, either long or short.  One consequnce of such always-in-the-market approach is situations where drawdowns can appear as excessive. These are rare, and the maximum observed equity peak to valley drawdown with unleveraged QQQ is 15%, 

However, with nearly 14 years of history with documented live trades the models have shown inherent capacity to recover temporary set-backs.

Steady performance with less drawdown?

Over time all models will hopefully show results up to their respective capabilities, however one way to lessen the extent of temporary fluctuations is to employ the STEADY model.

The COMBI strategy, with 50/50 use of CLOSE and STEADY, provides potential for growth with less volatility than CLOSE on its own (COMBI requires access to both CLOSE and STEADY signals),

 

 
 

 

 

Disclaimer: The owner of this site takes no responsibility for risk and possible losses on investments based on views here presented. Each individual is always fully responsible for his / her own investment decisions and which equities or financial instruments to trade.

mail: kt@kt-timing.com